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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a ceasefire agreement negotiated with US officials could be finalised in a matter of days. Following this, U.S. representatives are expected to submit the terms to the Russian leadership.

Berlin Talks Yield Major Headway, With Critical Obstacles Persist

After two days of discussions in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that approximately “90%” of the disputed points between Russia and Ukraine had been resolved. Despite this optimistic assessment, an actual conclusion to the conflict is not guaranteed, particularly because the Russian absence from the current dialogue.

In the early hours of Tuesday, the Ukrainian president said that the US Congress was anticipated to vote on defense assurances and that a complete package of documents might be ready “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the U.S. would hold consultations with Russian representatives, leading to high-level meetings as soon as this coming weekend.

Defense Assurances and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five key agreements. Several pertain to security guarantees: formally ratified, that is, voted on and endorsed by the United States Congress,” the president remarked to the press. He stated that these assurances would “mirror article 5” of the Nato alliance.

On Monday, US officials declined to give precise information regarding the probable makeup of the security package or what would happen if Russia attempted to seize additional territory following an agreement. They did, however, confirm that the United States does not intend to place boots on the ground in the country.

Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and eight other European countries issued a joint statement that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting safer seas, potentially by operating inside Ukraine.”

However, they did not suggesting these actions would constitute guarantees matching NATO's Article 5. Furthermore, there is little sign that Russia is near accepting the kind of arrangement being negotiated between Washington and Kyiv.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

On Tuesday, the Kremlin said it had not received the specifics of the plans for security assurances. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that Russia would not agree to forces of Nato countries being stationed in Ukraine “under any circumstances.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian team and their American counterparts remains the issue of land. A key demand involves Kyiv relinquishing the parts of the Donbas it currently controls, while the Ukrainian side prefers to freeze the lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. You know, it is a central problem. Currently, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president said following the Berlin discussions.

The US negotiation team, headed by two senior advisors, has suggested a compromise solution. Under this plan would see Ukraine withdraw, but Russia would not advance, with the resulting zone becoming “a free economic zone.” Moscow has suggested it could use police and national guard units rather than the military in such an area, implying it would still seek to maintain authority there.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean under the control of Moscow. Not legally or in practice will we recognise Donbas – its temporarily occupied part – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” said Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Possible Scenarios

The way ahead is uncertain how Moscow and Kyiv will resolve the territorial issue. Zelenskyy has previously suggested that a compromise solution like a special economic area could be conceivable if the Ukrainian people voted for it in a national vote. The major impediment is likely to be when the plans are put to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has given no sign he is prepared to concede on his military objectives.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will end up with precisely the situation we are experiencing on our flight right now – instability,” said the president, making the statement after his plane departed from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply additional armaments if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a fair request from us to the Americans,” he added.